What Big Banks’ Confidence Tells Us

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What Big Banks’ Confidence Tells Us

OCTOBER 24, 2024

By: Kate Drew

Competition and Growth in Banking

There is a major gap between larger banks and everyone else when it comes to confidence in their growth prospects. Specifically, while 66% of bank executive respondents to KPMG’s 2024 US Banking Industry Outlook Survey said they were confident in their growth prospects over the coming year, that came in at 93% for those with over $50 billion in assets. Of those with less than $50 billion in assets, only 48% felt the same way.

The data suggests that, as small- to mid-size institutions continue to contemplate the challenges of the current environment, from regulatory scrutiny to economic headwinds, big banks are largely forging ahead. This is important because large institutions, unbounded by geography due to their digital footprints, are a major competitive threat to community banks. Moreover, this isn’t about confidence alone; it is about what confidence does to inform strategy. Put simply, if a bank is confident, it will act differently.

This is especially relevant when it comes to future-proofing efforts. It is quite plausible that the confidence these bankers are exhibiting will lead them to continue to invest in innovation and technology, to continue to push the envelope on the art of the possible. On the other hand, many smaller institutions are pulling back and shying away — they are steadfastly focused on keeping in line and getting back to the basics. As a result, we could end up seeing not only a gap in confidence, but also an even wider delta on capabilities between these big banks and other institutions.

That is a problem because competing effectively requires keeping that delta as narrow as possible. It is always going to be there, and it is probably not even realistic to try to keep it from getting bigger. But putting pressure on the speed at which it is growing is a worthwhile exercise. That means continuing to invest in the future in ways that make sense. Those ways are going to be different for every institution and will always come back to strategy. The goal, though, should be to resist the urge to do nothing or to “wait it out.”

Often, innovation is talked about with risk on the other side of the coin. That is fair. However, there is another risk that is less often discussed — the risk of inaction. Taking a “wait-and-see” approach when another (quite fierce) segment of the market is perhaps seeing things differently is in and of itself a pretty risky endeavor.

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